Regression analysis of oil price return - 3199 Words

Contents 1.0 Introduction and Motivation 2 2.0 Methodology 5 2.1. Descriptive Statistics 5 2.2 Matrix of pairwise correlation. 6 3.0 Model Specification 6 3.1 Linear Regression Model. 6 3.2 The Regression Specification Error Test 8 3.3 Non-linear models 9 3.4 Autocorrelation. 10 3.5 Heteroskedasticity Test 10 4.0 Hypothesis Testing 11 5.0 Binary (Dummy) Variables 11 6.0 Conclusion 13 Reference List 13 1.0 Introduction and Motivation Crude oil is one of the world’s most important natural resources. Over the past six decades or so, crude oil – because of the products derived from it, has become highly indispensable in our everyday lives. Despite being a non-renewable resource, it is still used extensively in power generation.†¦show more content†¦Through group brainstorming, we came up with a number of variables that theoretically should affect the price of crude oil, and we used Bloomberg to find data on the same. Our two main criteria for a â€Å"good† variable were statistical significance and R2. We conducted a regression analysis as well as multiple regression analysis to double check the variables we selected on the Bloomberg terminal. Moreover, so as to not omit any good variables, we broadened our search to the Oil commodity section to find relevant industry reports and prospective variables. Through a process of rough trial and error, and after eliminating several variables d ue to problems such as multicollinearity and heteroskedasticity, we finalized the three variables that are mentioned below. As crude oil is invoiced in USD, it is of interest to note how fluctuations in the value of the USD affect oil prices. Another of our factors is the price of natural gas, the closest substitute as a source of energy to oil. Lastly, we seek to establish a relationship between returns in the SP500 and oil prices. We used monthly time-series data over a period of ten years beginning from 2005 for the purpose of this study. To avoid issues of non-stationary data, we used oil price returns and SP500 returns. 2.0 Methodology Our y variable is the percentage monthly return on WTI oil spot prices. West Texas Intermediate Cushing crude oil price is typically used as the reference spot price in theShow MoreRelatedAccounting Information and Predicting Financial Performance1049 Words   |  5 Pagesaccounting information includes regression analysis. Regression analysis is viewed by many to be more useful that financial data or ratios alone. Regression analysis often test whether past stock prices, sales, profit, financial ratios, solvency, and other items are related to other variables including GDP, interest rates, market saturation of the industry, etc. In addition, a degree of confidence can be determined concerning the relationship of the variables in regression analysis Accounting ratios are determinedRead MoreRelationship Between Gold, Oil and Us Stock Market1600 Words   |  7 Pagesrelationship between the oil prices, gold prices and stock market in the United State using yearly time series data. Si nce the gold and oil prices are raising their influence on stock market is also increasing and we will see how fluctuations in oil prices and gold prices impact the stock market in the United States. So here oil prices and gold prices will be our explanatory variable and stock market index will be our explained variable. In this study we will use multiple regression analysis to explain theRead More1221614 Chapter: 5 Data Analysis and Interpretation 5.3 RESEARCH GAP Similar studies have been1600 Words   |  7 PagesData Analysis and Interpretation 5.3 RESEARCH GAP Similar studies have been conducted in different countries. In my study the focus is on the impact of crude oil prices on the stock returns of automotive companies in India and it has been conducted for six automobile companies. 5.4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Firstly, the data on oil prices is taken from Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX). The time period of the data is from 2011 to 2013 as this was a period of high volatility in oil prices andRead MoreA Brief Note On Dow Chemical And Industry1519 Words   |  7 PagesQ7 From Q6, all regression models ran by Single Index Model, a model helps to split a security’s total risk into unique risk and market risk, ÃŽ ± is the intercept of the single index model in which evaluate the expected excess return of the security , and ÃŽ ² is the security’s sensitivity to the market index, while e represents the unsystematic risk of the security: Basic statistics ran from Q6 given with the average industry performance: EBAY INDUSTRY ÃŽ ± 0.025Read MoreA Brief Note On Dow Chemical And Industry1522 Words   |  7 PagesQ7 From Q6, all regressions models ran by Single Index Model, a model helps to split a security’s total risk into unique risk and market risk, ÃŽ ± is the intercept of the single index model in which evaluate the expected excess return of the security , and ÃŽ ² is the security’s sensitivity to the market index, while e represents the unsystematic risk of the security: Basic statistics ran from Q6 given as follow with the average industry performance: EBAY INDUSTRYRead MoreForeign Exchange Rate Sensitivity and Stock Price1702 Words   |  7 PagesFOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE SENSITIVITY AND STOCK PRICE : ESTIMATING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE OF TURKISH COMPANIES INTRODUCTION Variability in exchange rate is a major source of macroeconomic uncertainity affecting firms. After the 1970 s, the rapid expansion in international trade and adoption of floating exchange rate regimes by many countries led to increase exchange rate volatility. The firm s exposure to exchange rate risk increased. In the literature three types of exposure under floating exchangeRead MoreThe Relationship Between Oil Prices And Stock Market Returns Date2313 Words   |  10 Pagesand Hypothesis Development Empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil prices and stock market returns date all the way back to the early 1970’s. Jones and Kaul (1996) have found a negative relationship between the oil prices and stock market returns. (Nandha and Faff, 2008; Sadorsky, 2001) Supports the fact that oil price changes also have been seen to have a positive effect on oil and gas industry returns. There have been many variables affecting the way in which this correlation isRead MoreRaw Materials And The Natural Resources1439 Words   |  6 Pagescommodity is a good that can be traded (bought and sold) in commercial transactions between buyers and sellers and its price determines based on its demand and supply. commodities are mainly used as inputs to produce other commodities. they could be perishable such as agricultural commodities as tea, sugar and corn. The other type is non-perishable commodities as gold, rubber and oil.\ In the last decade, a massive economic growth movement has been occurred in the developing countries since theseRead MoreEssay on The Economics of Financial Markets1724 Words   |  7 Pagessignificantly increased. Exchange rate has been very instrumental in formulation of government policies in these regions. In fact, â€Å"many analysts regard exchange rate policy as a major determinant of other economical outcomes, such as adjustment to the oil shocks of the 1970’s and the debt the debt crisis of the 1980’s† (Frieden Ernesto, 2010) Generally speaking, there were four principal categories of exchange rate regimes in Latin America as discussed by Kiguel Alberto: (i) Countries with fixed exchangeRead MoreProject Task a: Valuation and Sensitivity Analysis2868 Words   |  12 Pagesfrequent player. In the section 1, the report deals with the valuation of the company. I will estimate the value of QAN’s on a per share basis. According to the historical prices of the company and all ordinaries, I will calculate QAN’s beta by calculating a regression on the monthly returns from QAN on the market returns in the last 5 years. And according to the QAN’s financial data, I will rebuild its historical Cash Flows. In addition, I gather relevant financial data and other non-financial

The Amazing Catch Essay - 1024 Words

Amanda Dennis Laura Toomb Interpersonal Communication September 6, 2014 The Amazing Catch I am writing this paper on the video clip of the amazing catch made by the ball girl. This paper is going to be my perception of the video as I go through the three stages of perception. I will also be explaining my thoughts throughout the three stages of perception while watching the video. In addition, I will in the end be deciding whether or not I believe the video to be true or fake. Selection. Selection is defined in the book as the following â€Å"The process of attending to a stimulus.† (Floyd, pg. 109) I have watched this video over and over before writing this paper, but the first time I watched it nothing really stood out to me besides†¦show more content†¦Those four schemas are physical constructs, role constructs, interaction constructs, and psychological constructs. I however didn’t really use all four of those constructs when watching the amazing catch. I used three of the four schema, the physical, role and interaction construc ts were the ones I used while classifying the information I perceived. When it comes to the physical constructs, it emphasizes people’s physical attributes. I noticed the girl wasn’t very tall, she was probably mid twenties, and that she had a slim body shape, which are all factors that make the catch hard to believe. The role constructs emphasize people’s social or professional position. I noticed at the end of the video was that she was a ball girl, and most ball girl or boys don’t ever go for a ball if it is in play or could potentially stay in play which I thought was a tad bit odd. The last construct that I used is the interaction construct. The interaction construct emphasizes people’s behaviors and I noticed that the girl kept her head down until she was in the chair with the camera on her. I find that weird because if you had just made a catch as amazing as that in a major league baseball game the last thing you would be doing is calmly jog ging back to your seat. You would be showing off and admiring all of the cheers you were getting from the crowd. Stage one also aided in completing stage two because without being able to select the differentShow MoreRelatedHow Advertising Campaign Is The Most Important Part Of An Advertisement Campaign1583 Words   |  7 Pagesa certain audience, which would be interested in the product you are selling. First, you should make fliers and brochure that invite the local customers to check out your product. Then, practice placing different size fonts, graphics, and color to catch the reader s interest. In addition, add a logo or a catchy slogan, so your new customer will remember your product s name. Follow the Rules Second, be sure that your advertising campaign strictly follows the copyright or trademark laws. 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Representations of Love in Much Ado About Nothing Free Essays

Explore representations of love in Much Ado About Nothing In Much Ado About Nothing, Shakespeare uses literary structures such as doubles and opposites in order to emphasise the plays main themes and ideas. McEachern claims â€Å"It is undoubtedly the most socially and psychologically realistic of his comedies, in it’s portrait of the foibles generosities of communal life. † (McEachern, 2006, 1) One main theme I want to explore is love and how Shakespeare represents this in Much Ado About Nothing. We will write a custom essay sample on Representations of Love in Much Ado About Nothing or any similar topic only for you Order Now The two main genres in Shakespeare’s dramas are tragedy and comedy. Tragedy always ends in death and comedy always ends in a marriage. Although Much Ado inevitably ends in marriage, it differs from some of Shakespeare’s other romantic comedies as his other comedies usually portray love in a much more unrealistic way. â€Å"Much Ado About Nothing is best known for the ‘merry war’ between one of it’s two couples, and an oxymoron could also describe this comedy’s identity as a whole. Shakespeare offers a play of light and dark, of romantic union wrested from fear and malice and of social harmony soothing the savagery of psychic violence† (McEachern, 2006, 1) In Act 1 Scene 1, Don Pedro, prince of Arragon arrives with his bastard brother Don John, and his two friends Claudio and Benedick. It is in this Act that Beatrice and Benedick first meet and the war of wits begin. Leonato states â€Å"There is a kind of merry war betwixt Signior Benedick and her [Beatrice]; they never meet but there is a skirmish of wit between them. † (Much Ado, Act 1 Scene 1, 520) Although their words seem quite hateful to one another, at the same time it may also come across as flirtatious. Before Beatrice even meets Benedick, she expresses her distaste for him, however, she talks about him in such great depth it is almost more like an obsession than hatred. Benedick teases Beatrice by saying â€Å"I am loved of all ladies, only you excepted: and I would I could find it in my heart that I had not a hard heart; for, truly, I love none. † (Act 1 scene 1, 521) to which Beatrice replies â€Å"A dear happiness to women: they would else have been troubled with a pernicious suitor. I thank God and my cold blood, I am of your humour for that: I had rather hear my dog bark at a crow than a man swear he loves me† (Act 1 Scene 1, 521) By using the characters of Beatrice and Benedick, Shakespeare mocks the conventional type of love, romantic love, which is expressed by Hero and Claudio. This is also an example of how Shakespeare uses doubles in his play, as he uses the two couples to express two types of love. One being more realistic, that of Beatrice and Benedick, and the other being the more unrealistic, over the top romantic love expressed by Hero and Claudio. Even though the plot is largely based on Hero and Claudio’s relationship, the witty banter and seemingly unromantic relationship between Beatrice and Benedick seems much more interesting to the reader and we are more interested in how their relationship will develop. It is this relationship that seems much more believable compared to Claudio and Hero’s fairytale love at first sight. It is through contrasting these two different types of love and through the different use of language that Shakespeare can mock the conventional romantic love. Claudio uses a totally different style of language to Benedick when they both speak of love. Benedick is highly cynical and negative about love where as Claudio is more pretentious and elaborate when he speaks about Hero, for example when he says â€Å"Can the world buy such a Jewel? † (Act 1 scene 1, 522). This language is completely different to the way that benedick speaks to Beatrice as the first thing he says to her is â€Å"My dear Lady disdain! Are you yet living? † (Act 1 scene 1, 521) Benedick also speaks of his frustration of Claudio’s eloquent language when speaking of love as he states â€Å"He was wont speak plain and to the purpose, like an honest man and a soldier†¦his words are a very fantastical banquet, just so many strange dishes. (Act 1 Scene 3, 529) This however is quite hypocritical of him as in Act 4 Scene 1, Benedick confesses his love for Beatrice and states â€Å"I do love nothing in the world so well as you: is that not strange? † (Act 4, Scene 1, 541) to which Beatrice responds â€Å"I love you with so much of my heart, that none is left to protest† (Act 4, scene 1, 541) This shows how dramatically their relationship has changed as the witty banter and insults have turned into confessions of love for one another. It is often difficult to understand and accept the love between Hero and Claudio as it is so unrealistic. They fall in love with each other before they even truly get to know one-another, which therefore makes their love and marriage seem quite false and shallow. The fact that Claudio does not question Don John when he professes that Hero has been unfaithful, yet instead believes his word to be true, questions whether the love he has for Hero is sincere. Surely Claudio would confront his future wife before coming to any sort of conclusion, however, even her own father believes this to be true and states â€Å"why she, oh she is fallen/ into a pit of ink, that the wide sea/ hath drops too few to wash her clean again,/ and salt too little, which may season give/ to her foul tainted flash† (Act 4 Scene 1, 540) Another aspect of the play that makes Hero and Claudio’s love very unrealistic is hero’s willingness to forgive Claudio after his bold accusations of her infidelity. If his love for her was as strong and powerful as he made out, he would be more trusting of Hero in the first place. However, she seems to disregard this and does not question his behaviour, but instead is willing to carry on with the marriage. Bibliography McEachern,  Claire. Much Ado About Nothing. 2006. the Arden Shakespeare Shakespeare, W. The Complete Works of William Shakespeare. 1996. Wordsworth Editions Limited How to cite Representations of Love in Much Ado About Nothing, Papers

How To Write Effective Informative Speech free essay sample

Imagine you are unable to get out of bed, to eat, unassisted. Needing another to clothe and bathe you day in and day out. Is that living? When it’s your time to go, would that be dying with dignity? Let’s say you have a chronic illness and you are in extreme physical pain. Wouldn’t you want the right to ask your doctor to end your suffering? Or is that treading too far? Welcome to the debate of euthanasia. Today I will discuss the history and argumentation of assisted suicide. Assisted suicide, also known as euthanasia, is a hot-button issue that was brought into the light by Dr. Jack Kevorkian. Dr. Kevorkian was a controversial activist who tried to legalize assisted suicide under the argument that everyone deserves a humane death. There had been much debate on the issue, and our legislatures have explored what the practice entails and the moral implications of assisted suicide. However, it is still illegal in all of the United States. But Physician Aid in Dying or PAD is legal in Washington, Oregon, and Montana. The difference is that euthanasia involves a third party to administer the dose, whereas PAD leaves it up to the patient to take it. In this presentation I will focus solely on euthanasia, including the role of Dr. Kevorkian and the moral implications of legalizing assisted suicide. The concept of choosing a time to die with the help of a physician was first medically explored by Dr. Jack Kevorkian. Born in Royal Oak, Michigan, he attended the University of Michigan. There, he saw patients suffering. Especially in cases where there was no cure available, he wanted to end their suffering in a humane way. In his own words Dr. Kevorkian stated, â€Å"I’m going to do it right.† That was published in the New York Times in 2007. According to a 2011 New York Times article, in 1990 Kevorkian helped 130 people die using his machine titled the Thanatron, which is Greek for â€Å"death machine.† A 2011 Washington Post article described his infamous death machine, which is said to have been made from scraps. Other methods Kevorkian employed were carbon monoxide masking and overdose by injection. His practice earned him the nickname Doctor Death. Due to the contentious nature of the procedures, Dr. Kevorkian had to perform them in secrecy; as I stated, this was not an open practice. No church or hospital would host his practice. This forced Dr. Kevorkian to perform assisted suicides in his VW van. However, Dr. Kevorkian grew tired of doing everything in secrecy, and the demand was high. So, he brought his practice out into the public sphere. By publicizing his work, writing about the need for assisted suicide and the humanness of dying with dignity, he started a great debate in the United States in a more elaborate and graphic attempt to draw public attention. Dr. Kevorkian taped a filming of an assisted suicide by a man who had Lou Gehrig’s disease. The taping was shown on 60 Minutes in order to draw the attention of the courts, and attention he got. The courts decided that the taping of his assisted suicide was considered first-degree murder. In 1999 NPR stated that the court sentenced Dr. Kevorkian to 10 to 25 years for this, but he only served 8. He was released on parole on June 1, 2007, on the condition that he would not offer advice on suicide to anyone. He died four years later of natural causes. Before he died, however, Kevorkian stated, â€Å"Dying is not a crime.† And ever since he called attention to the idea and practice of assisted suicide, people have been debating the â€Å"how† of that quote. Indeed it is how one enters death that stems all the debate. The moral implications alone are enough to prompt the nation’s most notable academics and doctors to take a look at assisted suicide, also known as death counseling and euthanasia. According to an article released by the New York Times in 2011, 60% of Kevorkian’s patients who chose to be euthanized were not terminally ill. In addition, the biggest critique of the method was the lack of psychiatric analysis and counseling before the procedure. According to another 2011 New York Times article, in at least 19 cases persons chose to die within 24 hours of meeting Dr. Kevorkian. The Economist stated, â€Å"Studies of those who sought Dr. Kevorkian suggest that though many had a  worsening illness it was not usually terminal. Autopsies show that five people had no disease at all. Little over a third were in pain. Some presumably suffered from no more than hypochondria or depressionâ€Å" (June 9, 2011). In response to this Kevorkian stated on CNN, â€Å"What difference does it make if someone is terminal? We are all terminal† (June 14, 2010). You see, for Kevorkian a patient didn’t necessarily need to be terminal, just suffering. â€Å"While there are heavy critiques against the procedure, Kevorkian’s work can be credited for stimulating the debate and improving end-of-life care in the United States.† That was printed in the Detroit Free Press in 2011. Its history is synonymous with the name Dr. Jack Kevorkian. Kevorkian, while his work was controversial, did make public the topic of extreme patient suffering and a doctor’s role in addressing it. Whether you support or oppose Dr. Kevorkian’s work, remember that there is only one absolute in life, that it will end one day. When your time comes, I hope you are able to go with as much dignity as you lived.